NFL Fantasy Football Week 18 Lineup Decisions: Starts, Sits, Sleepers, Busts to know for every game

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.

At this stage we can be confident in which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough and we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Christian McCaffrey). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: The Steelers have a few paths to make the playoffs but the easiest is for them to win and either the Bills or Jaguars losing. The Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

CONTRACT INCENTIVES: Odell Beckham has plenty of numbers that earn him bonuses but the most likely one is if he catches five more passes. That would earn him a $250,000 bonus. It’s unknown how much, if at all, Beckham will play. 

John Harbaugh rested some of his starters, including Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, two defenders, some of his linemen and his then-lead RB Mark Ingram back in 2019 when they had clinched the top spot and played a meaningless Week 17 game against the Steelers. They wound up steamrolling Pittsburgh 28-10 with, interestingly enough, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill rushing 31 times. This suggests that some Ravens starters might play, but they’re all uncertainties playing in a watered-down version of the offense with, presumably, Tyler Huntley starting. The defense could be close to full strength up front, but safety Kyle Hamilton and cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens could all be held out. That makes the matchup a little bit more enticing for Mason Rudolph and a Steelers passing offense that’s been become incredibly efficient (11.1 yards per attempt leads all quarterbacks, and a 5.9% off-target rate is third best over the past two weeks). 

• STARTS: George Pickens (WR2 in PPR), Najee Harris (RB2), Diontae Johnson (low-end WR2 in PPR), Jaylen Warren (low-end RB2 in PPR), 
• SITS: All Ravens including the DST (too much uncertainty), Pat Freiermuth, Mason Rudolph
• SLEEPER: Steelers DST

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: The winner earns a playoff berth. The winner can also clinch the AFC South title if the Jaguars lose. The loser is out of the playoffs. 

CONTRACT INCENTIVES: Dalton Schultz will earn a $250,000 bonus if he catches six passes. Devin Singletary will earn a $250,000 bonus if he totals 74 yards. 

The Texans’ pass rush pressure rate has improved greatly over the past five weeks, some of which without top rookie Will Anderson. It’s been veteran addition Derek Barnett who has helped turn the Texans front into a more dangerous group. That’s trouble for Gardner Minshew, who has a 45.6% completion rate when pressured with high interception (2.9%) and off-target (16.2%) rates when the rush is getting near him. Indianapolis might try to run as much as possible — they posted the best rushing average of any Texans opponent this year (4.9 yards per carry — that was without Jonathan Taylor), but Houston is among the league leaders with 3.1 yards per rush allowed and a supremely low 7.6% rate of runs of 10-plus yards allowed. 

• STARTS: Nico Collins, Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, Devin Singletary, Dalton Schultz (low-end TE1), C.J. Stroud, Texans DST
• SITS: Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Colts DST
• SLEEPER: Gardner Minshew (high-end QB2), Xavier Hutchinson (if Noah Brown and Robert Woods are both out)

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: The Buccaneers win the NFC South and get a home playoff game (likely against the Eagles) with a win. The Panthers have already clinched the 33rd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. 

CONTRACT INCENTIVES: Baker Mayfield will earn $1 million if the Bucs win the NFC South. He also has smaller incentives if he finishes strong in multiple passing categories. 

A week after maybe the Panthers offense had found a spark, they were back to being completely useless against a motivated Jaguars defense in Week 17. Now they’ll host a Bucs squad that has a playoff berth on the line. It’s also a Bucs defense that’s started to finally play better up front and should do a solid job of containing the Panthers run game while pressuring Bryce Young. That’s important because they remain weak against the pass, allowing at least 14.7 PPR points to a tight end in each of four straight games and at least 15 PPR points to a receiver four times over their past four games (none last week against the Saints but two back in Week 15). 

• STARTS: Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (WR2 in PPR), Adam Thielen (WR3 in PPR), Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers DST (yes really)
• SITS: Chuba Hubbard (high-end RB3), Bryce Young, Cade Otton, Panthers DST
• SLEEPERS: D.J. Chark, Trey Palmer

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: The Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and will play at the AFC South winner next week. The Bengals are counting down the days to Joe Burrow’s wrist being free of injury.

We know the Browns will rest Joe Flacco and a number of other starters dealing with injuries, but we might see the Bengals rest their beat-up receivers, too. Tee Higgins (hamstring) missed a chunk of last week’s loss and isn’t fully healthy and Ja’Marr Chase admitted he played last week at “70 percent” after suffering a shoulder joint sprain in Week 16. As a result, we might see a lot of rushing and bland football across the board. 

• STARTS: Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase (WR2 if he plays), Tee Higgins (WR3 if he plays), 
• SITS: All Browns including the DST (too much uncertainty), Bengals DST, Jake Browning
• SLEEPERS: Tyler Boyd (if Higgins and/or Chase are out)

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: The Lions can get to the No. 2 seed if they win and the Cowboys and Eagles both lose. Otherwise they won’t be worse than the No. 3 seed. The Vikings need a win, a Packers loss, a Seahawks loss and a loss by either Tampa Bay or New Orleans in order to clinch a playoff spot. 

After being so good against the run for so much of the season, the Vikings run defense has hit the skids. Since Week 15 they’ve let up 4.6 yards per rush with four rushing touchdowns (three to the Lions in Week 16). Their defensive rush success rate has crumpled to 55.3% with 18 missed tackles, both seventh-worst in the league over that span. Dan Campbell has insisted multiple times over the past couple of weeks that he will not rest his starters. And with Minnesota’s run defense cracked, we should expect to see at least stay balanced, just as they have in their past three games (54% pass, 46% run). 

• STARTS: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery (RB2), Jordan Addison (WR3), Jared Goff, Lions DST
• SITS: Ty Chandler (RB3), Nick Mullens, Vikings DST
• SLEEPERS: Johnny Mundt (low-end TE1)

NFL DRAFT IMPLICATIONS: A Patriots loss keeps them in the mix for the No. 2 overall pick in the draft with Arizona and Washington. A Jets loss keeps them in the mix for a pick inside the Top 10. 

Both teams have offenses that have been whittled down to hanging on the run game, using running backs in the pass game, keeping throws short most of the time and hoping the defense makes some plays. The difference is that the Patriots defense has managed to consistently stick as one of the league’s best against running backs both on the ground (2.6 yards per rush allowed over their past five games with a 2.1% opponents explosive rush rate allowed) and through the air (around league average in catch rate and yards per catch to running backs over their past five despite seeing some of the most targets against in that span; one reception went for more than 14 yards). Back in Week 3 the Patriots held the Jets running backs to 1.8 yards per carry and 23 receiving yards on five catches. It’s not to say Breece Hall will be a bad start — his expected volume cannot be denied — but it might be an inefficient game if he can’t sneak through for a couple of big plays. That might mean the Patriots find a way to take this game down. 

• STARTS: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson (WR2), Ezekiel Elliott (RB2), both DSTs (Jets higher)
• SITS: Both QBs, Tyler Conklin (TE2)
• SLEEPER: Demario Douglas (WR3 in PPR)

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: Both teams will clinch the NFC South with a win and a Buccaneers loss. If they somehow tie and the Buccaneers lose, the Saints are the champs. Only the Saints can still clinch a wild-card spot if the Bucs win via a Saints win and losses by the Seahawks and Packers. 

The Saints have been noticeably more conservative with their pass game since their Week 11 bye, averaging a 54.8% pass rate in six matchups with just one of those six being pass heavy (the loss at L.A.). That includes Week 12 at the Falcons when they threw a modest 58% of the time in a nine-point loss. If that game and the Rams loss, are indicators of how they might operate, expect the Saints to bank on the pass more this week. The only way around that is if the Saints think they can mimic what the Bears did to the Falcons in the second half last week (7.4 yards per carry against them). That might be more of a wish given the health of Alvin Kamara and the Saints O-line. Expect a solid pass attempt day for Derek Carr. 

• STARTS: Chris Olave, Bijan Robinson, Juwan Johnson (TE1), Drake London (WR3), Kyle Pitts (low-end TE1), Derek Carr, Saints DST
• SITS: Taysom Hill, Jonnu Smith, Taylor Heinicke, Falcons DST
• SLEEPERS: Jamaal Williams (RB3 if Alvin Kamara is out), Rashid Shaheed (low-end WR3)

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: Jaguars will claim the AFC South and the AFC’s No. 4 seed (and a date with the Browns) with a win. They can also land a playoff spot if the Steelers and Broncos lose and if the Texans-Colts game doesn’t end in a tie. Losers of three straight, the Titans are in the hunt for a first-rounder as high as fifth overall. 

CONTRACT INCENTIVES: DeAndre Hopkins is seven catches and 39 yards away from reaching incentives that pay him $250,000 each. He would get an additional $250,000 if he scores two more touchdowns. 

Tennessee’s offense was awful last week, turning the ball over once on a fumble and and four times on three-and-outs. They also had a 17-play drive that soaked up more than half of the third quarter and ended with zero points despite running eight plays inside the 10-yard line. None of this should surprise you — the Titans have averaged 17.5 points per game in Ryan Tannehill’s six games as the primary quarterback and he accounted for zero points when he took over for Will Levis last week. The Jaguars defense stepped up last week against the lowly Panthers and should be able to harass the Titans without giving up too many big plays. 

• STARTS: Travis Etienne, Evan Engram, DeAndre Hopkins (WR2), Calvin Ridley (low-end WR2 – lower if Christian Kirk plays), Jaguars DST
• SITS: Derrick Henry (fringe RB2 in PPR, a little higher in non-PPR), Tyjae Spears (RB3), Chig Okonkwo, C.J. Beathard, Ryan Tannehill

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: Seahawks are in the playoffs with a win and a Packers loss. Meanwhile the Cardinals will be in the mix for the No. 2 overall pick if they lose.

Losing left tackle D.J. Humphries to a torn ACL could impact the Cardinals’ ground game. Backup Kelvin Beachum is experienced but hasn’t graded well in run blocking per Pro Football Focus since 2014. That’s a shame considering how awesome James Conner has been lately (17-plus PPR points in each of his past four). The Cardinals still figure to lean on Conner for the entire game if they can versus a Seattle run defense that’s allowed a third-highest 5.2 yards per carry over its past four games with a league-high 27 missed tackles. Seattle’s pass defense has also shown some weakness lately, pressuring opposing quarterbacks at a league-average rate while refusing to blitz a ton. That’s led to a large 8.7 yards per attempt allowed over their past four games including 11.4 to Mason Rudolph last week. By the way, Beachum might have poor grades run blocking but has been a very good pass blocker throughout his career. 

• STARTS: James Conner, DK Metcalf, Zach Charbonnet (if Kenneth Walker is out), Trey McBride, Tyler Lockett (fringe WR2), Kyler Murray, Geno Smith 
• SITS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (high-end WR3), Michael Wilson, both DSTs
• SLEEPERS: Greg Dortch (WR3), Noah Fant (TE2 in PPR)

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: The Packers will get in with a win, but even if they lose there are combinations involving losses by the Vikings, Seahawks and either of the Buccaneers or the Saints that could get them in. Not only have the Bears’ Panthers No. 1 overall pick but they’re also in the mix for another pick as high as eighth overall if they lose. 

CONTRACT INCENTIVES: Jordan Love will earn $500,000 if the Packers make the playoffs. 

I’d argue that both offenses are hitting their stride — Chicago has averaged 27.3 points and 356.0 total yards per game in its four games since the bye, and Green Bay has averaged 26.7 points and 377.4 total yards per game in its past seven. if there’s an edge in the run defenses, it’s that the Bears have allowed a much higher rate of runs of 10-plus yards in their past four (13.9%, fourth-highest) compared to the Packers (6.4%, which is inside the top-10). But against the pass there’s no comparison — Chicago’s defense has the lowest completion rate (57%), fourth-lowest yards per attempt allowed (6.3) with nine interceptions over its past four games. The Packers are far worse by comparison including a league-high 8.8 yards per attempt allowed — and that includes holding the Vikings to 5.6 last week. If Fields has a good day throwing, the Bears could mess around and beat the Packers at Lambeau Field for the first time since Nov. 26, 2015. 

• STARTS: D.J. Moore, Aaron Jones, Khalil Herbert (low-end RB2), Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Bears DST (low-end option)
• SITS: Tucker Kraft (fringe TE1 in PPR), Cole Kmet (TE2 until we know he will definitely play), Roschon Johnson, Romeo Doubs, Packers DST
• SLEEPERS: Bo Melton (WR3)

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: The Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 seed and intend to rest several starters including Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers would be in the mix for a pick as high as fourth overall if they lose. 

CONTRACT INCENTIVES: Austin Ekeler can earn an extra $100,000 if he gets 110 more total yards. 

The Chiefs will go with Blaine Gabbert to start against the Chargers, complete with a receiving corps expected to include Justyn Ross, Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney. Those receivers are pretty dicey but the one thing they all have is speed to make plays after the catch. That’s been a problem for the Bolts over their past four games, allowing over 170 yards after the catch to the Broncos in two games and over 250 yards receiving to the Raiders. The only team to not bowl the Chargers over was the Bills, and they tried (38.1% of Josh Allen’s throws traveled 15-plus Air Yards). Making matters worse is a pass rush pressure rate that’s sunk in each of their past four (22.2% rate at Denver last week). The point is that even against backups running a vanilla version of Andy Reid’s offense it’s tough to expect the Chargers defense to dominate when they’ve made so many mistakes against non-elite quarterbacks lately. 

• STARTS: Austin Ekeler (low-end RB2), Gerald Everett
• SITS: All Chiefs including the DST (too much uncertainty), Quentin Johnston, Easton Stick, Chargers DST
• SLEEPERS: Justyn Ross (low-end WR3), Alex Erickson (low-end WR3 in PPR)

NFL DRAFT IMPLICATIONS: Both teams will have a first-rounder somewhere between 10th and 18th regardless of whether they win or lose. 

This feels like a spot for Antonio Pierce to just let his crew play loose and have fun, kind of like they did against the Chargers a few weeks ago. That figures to mean a bounce-back week for a Raiders defense that got bent by Jonathan Taylor last week (4.6 yards per carry) and let up 9.7 yards per attempt to Gardner Minshew. One key stat hurting the Raiders pass defense: the 7.7 Yards After Catch per reception they’ve given up over the past three weeks, second-most in the league. The Broncos are third on the season in Yards After Contact per completion (6.02) and first in the past four weeks with two different quarterbacks (7.68). 

• STARTS: Davante Adams, Zamir White (RB1 if Josh Jacobs is out), Jakobi Meyers (WR2 in PPR), Javonte Williams (fringe RB2), Raiders DST
• SITS: Jerry Jeudy, Aidan O’Connell (QB2), Jarrett Stidham, Broncos DST
• SLEEPER: Brandon Johnson (low-end WR3 in PPR)

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: Philly has a playoff berth locked up, but they’ll win the NFC East with a win or tie and a Dallas loss. If that happens, they’ll be the No. 2 seed. Any other scenario (a Cowboys win or an Eagles loss) and they’re the No. 5 seed. The Giants would be in the mix for a pick as high as fifth overall if they lose. 

CONTRACT INCENTIVES: Darius Slayton is five catches and 42 yards away from reaching incentives that pay him $100,000 each. 

When they played two weeks ago, the Eagles took advantage of a bad Giants run defense and let D’Andre Swift and Kenny Gainwell run free for a total of 133 rush yards on 26 carries (5.1 yards per carry) with a touchdown. But it was the Eagles defense that struggled to put the Giants away as Tyrod Taylor led New York to a late rally before falling short. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Eagles keep things conservative and run the ball a lot again, especially if DeVonta Smith isn’t at 100 percent and/or if the weather isn’t friendly. Additionally, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni sort of hinted that pulling starters is on the table. All the uncertainty makes the Eagles offense a little tough to trust, even in a great matchup. 

• STARTS: Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, D’Andre Swift, Darren Waller, Darius Slayton (borderline WR2/3), Wan’Dale Robinson (WR3 in PPR), Jalen Hurts, Eagles DST (low-end option)
• SITS: Giants DST, Julio Jones 
• SLEEPERS: Tyrod Taylor (fringe QB1)

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: Really there aren’t any. The 49ers are locked into the No. 1 seed and intend to start Sam Darnold. The Rams are locked into a wild-card spot and are planning to start Carson Wentz. 

The Rams have already ruled out Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams and Tyler Higbee, among others. The Niners have ruled out Brock Purdy. Sean McVay has coached two meaningless season-finales: Both times he let his backup quarterbacks air it out (John Wolford threw 38 times in 2020, Sean Mannion threw 34 times in 2017), and his run games were ineffective despite plenty of handoffs. Kyle Shanahan has never had the chance to rest his starters in the regular season, and while he cautioned against resting too many players, he did announce Sam Darnold as the starting QB. Keep in mind: These teams are big-time NFC West rivals who might face off in the playoffs. Neither coach will tip his hand much. Outside of Wentz potentially chucking the rock a bunch of times and the Niners potentially playing catch-up, there’s too much uncertainty on what — or who — to expect. 

SITS: All Rams and 49ers including the DST (too much uncertainty until/unless we get some clarity)

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: With a win, the Cowboys will be the No. 2 seed and the NFC East champions. If they lose, their only way to get a home game next week is if the Eagles also lose. If the Cowboys lose and Eagles win, the Cowboys will be the No. 5 seed with a road date against the NFC South champ. With a loss, the Commanders are in the mix for the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft. 

Remember Thanksgiving evening? Dak Prescott sure does — he ripped the Commanders’ putrid pass defense for 331 yards and four touchdowns to four different teammates. He also understood the assignment and threw passes of 15-plus Air Yards on 44% of his attempts. I’m not sure the Cowboys need to be that aggressive this week, but they might be considering that the Commanders’ pass rush ranks second-worst in pressure rate in the eight games since they traded away their best edge guys and the Commanders rank bottom-10 in completion rate allowed (66.2%), yards per attempt allowed (7.6), YAC/reception allowed (6.1) and receiving touchdowns allowed (17) since the trades. 

• STARTS: CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, Terry McLaurin (high-end WR2), Jake Ferguson, Brian Robinson (low-end RB2 in non-PPR, high-end RB3 in PPR), Dak Prescott, Cowboys DST
• SITS: Sam Howell, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, Commanders DST
• SLEEPERS: Brandin Cooks (high-end WR3)

PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS: The Dolphins have a playoff berth locked up but can win the AFC East with a win. If they lose they’ll move to the No. 6 seed. The Bills situation is much spicier: If they win, they’re the No. 2 seed. If they lose and the Jaguars and Steelers both win and the Titans-Colts game does not end in a tie, then they’d miss the playoffs entirely. 

Josh Allen was incredibly efficient in the Bills’ Week 4 win versus Miami. He had a perfect QB rating with five total touchdowns. While it’s true that the Bills have changed their offensive identity a little bit over their past six games, they still should love the matchup against a Dolphins defense missing both of their top pass rushers and potentially one of their top outside cornerbacks. That should give Allen plenty of time to make reads and complete throws, although it’s entirely possible the Dolphins will play heavy zone coverage to keep Allen from striking deep. If that happens, and if the Bills lean on Allen, we could finally see Stefon Diggs put together a solid game for just the second time since they changed coordinators. 

• STARTS: Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, James Cook (RB2), Stefon Diggs (WR2), Dalton Kincaid, Tua Tagovailoa
• SITS: Gabe Davis (low-end WR3 at best), Cedric Wilson, both DSTs (Bills higher)